Negative emissions have been a staple of stringent climate scenarios for the last decade. Out of 116 developed cost-optimal climate scenarios associated with the well below 2 °C goal presented in IPCC AR5, 101 require global net-negative emissions from roughly 2070 onwards. To achieve this, Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) or other carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies such as afforestation or direct air capture, must be deployed at considerable scales already before 2050 and scaled up beyond. The aspirational goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius, set in Paris agreement, has led to even greater interest in negative emissions as exemplified by the large attendance of the first International Conference on Negative CO2 Emissions taking place at Chalmers in May 2018 that gathers a wide range of scientists, experts and stakeholders.
BECCS is often employed only or mainly in electricity system in stringent climate scenarios, the sector that also sees a major expansion of variable generation from wind and solar power. Yet the interplay of these technologies has largely gone unexamined. In addition, most of the technologies for providing negative emissions are still in development phase and significant political support is needed to scale them up in the time frame suggested by model scenarios. At the same time the studies of socio-political dimensions of transition to negative emissions indicate low public support and several barriers to deployment.
In this side event, we invite experts of different areas related to negative emissions – technological, socio-political and resource availability – to share their views on future developments and key uncertainties as well as on possible improvements of model scenarios and communication of model results.
Insights from The International Conference on Negative CO2 Emissions – Anders Lyngfelt (Chalmers)
The role of bio-based technologies in the electricity system and their effect on variable renewables – Mariliis Lehtveer (Chalmers, Linköping University)
Investment preferences and deployment barriers for BECCS – Mathias Fridahl (Linköping University, Fores)
Open discussion and thoughts on modelling negative emissions and communicating the model results